Let
J: Jupiter aligns with Mars
H: the moon is in the Seventh House
Then, by Bayes' theorem,
P(H|J)
=
P(J|H)P(H)
P(J|H)P(H) + P(J|H')P(H')
=
(0.1)(1/30)
(0.1)(1/30) + (0.05)(29/30)
0.064516
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