7.3: Probability and Probability Models

Previous tutorial: Part A: Basic Concepts
This tutorial: Part B: Probability of Unions, Intersections, and Complements

Probability of Unions, Intersections, and Complements

First, a warmup on unions and mutually exclusive events to get started... (To review unions and intersections of events, go to the tutorial for Section 7.1.)

If E is the event that the price of your stocks will increase by at least 50% and F is the event that the price of your stocks will stay the same, then EF is:

You select an exercise at random from Finite Mathematics . Which of the following are mutually exclusive pairs of events?

We now see how to calculate the probability of a union of two or more events.

Addition Principle

Principle
   
Example
Addition Principle for Mutually Exclusive Events

If E and F are mutually exclusive events, then

    P(EF) = P(E) + P(F).

In words: The probability that either E or F occurs is the probability that E occurs, plus the probability that F occurs.

Cast two dice and add the numbers facing up.
    E: the sum is 5
    F: the sum is even.

Since these are mutually exclusive events, the probability that the sum is either 5 or even is

    P(EF)=P(E)+P(F)
=1

9
+1

2
=11

18

Q How did you get P(E) = 1/9?
A Press here to see how we got that.


General Addition Principle

If E and F are not mutually exclusive events, then we must use the more general formula

    P(EF) = P(E) + P(F) - P(EF).

(For an explanation of where these formulas come from, consult Section 7.3 in Finite Mathematics, or Finite Mathematics and Applied Calculus. )

Cast a single die and note the number facing up. Take

    E: the outcome is 1, 2 or 3; P(E) = 1/2
    F: the outcome is even; P(E) = 1/2

We will also need:

    EF: the outcome is 2

Since these are not mutually exclusive, we use

P(EF)=P(E)+P(F)-P(EF).
=1

2
+1

2
-1

6
=5

6


 

In a survey of voters, 30% of the respondents reported supporting the Republican candidate in the last presidential election, and 35% reported supporting the Democrat candidate. (Voting machines made it impossible to "spoil the ballot" by voting for both candidates.) Based on this data, the experimental probability that a voter will vote for a presidential candidate of either major political party is:

In a survey of voters who were eligible to vote in both of the last two presidential elections, 20% reported voting in both, 25% reported voting in the first, while 35% did not vote at all. What percentage of voters voted in the second presidential election?

Further Principles of Probability

Here is an expanded table which lists all the principles of probability. You will recognize the first and third from above.

Principle
   
Example
Addition Principle for Mutually Exclusive Events

If E and F are mutually exclusive events, then

    P(EF) = P(E) + P(F)

In words: The probability that either E or F occurs is the probablity that E occurs, plus the probability that F occurs.

Cast two dice and add the numbers facing up.
    E: the sum is 5
    F: the sum is even.

Since these are mutually exclusive events, the probability that the sum is either 5 or even is

P(EF)=P(E)+P(F)
=1

9
+1

2
=11

18


Addition Principle for Any Number of Mutually Exclusive Events

If E1, E2, . . . , Es are all mutually exclusive events, then

P(E1E2...Es) = P(E1) + P(E2) + ... + P(Es)

In words: The probability that some Ei occurs is the sum of the probabilities that the individual Ei occur.

Cast two dice and add the numbers facing up.

E1: the sum is 5
E2: the sum is 7.
E3: the sum is even

Since these are mutually exclusive events, the probability that the sum is either 5, 7, or even is

P(E1E2E3)=P(E1)+P(E2)+P(E3)
=1

9
+1

6
+1

2
=7

9


General Addition Principle

If E and F are not mutually exclusive events, then we must use the more general formula

P(EF) = P(E) + P(F)-P(EF)

Cast a single die and note the number facing up. Take

    E: the outcome is 1, 2 or 3; P(E) = 1/2
    F: the outcome is even; P(E) = 1/2

We will also need:

    EF: the outcome is 2; P(EF) = 1/6

Since these are not mutually exclusive, we use

    P(EF)=P(E)+P(F)-P(EF).
    =1

    2
    +1

    2
    -1

    6
    =5

    6


Probability of the Whole Sample Space and the Impossible Event

    P(S) = 1
    P() = 0

In words: The probability that something happens is 1; the probability of the impossible event is 0.

In the experiment immediately above,

    S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6};
    P(S) = 1

(the outcome is always a number in the range 1-6.)


Complement

    P(E') = 1 - P(E)

In words: The probability of E not happening is 1 minus the probability of E

In the experiment immediately above, take

    E: the event that the outcome is 6.
then
    P(the outcome is not 6)=1-P(E)
    =1-1

    6
    =5

    6

We now put all of these principles to use.
 

90% of the Jupiter colonists have been vaccinated against Jovian Influenza X. 3% of this group gets the flu anyway. 10% of the total population of colonists gets this flu. Take

Then P(E) and P(F) are:

In the above situation, what percentage of population are unvaccinated and still do not get the flu?
[Hint: Consider the three following 3 events:

Finally, what percent of the colonists has been exposed to the virus either by vaccination or by getting the flu?

For more practice, try some of the questions in the chapter quiz (Warning: it covers the whole of Chapter 7) by pressing the button on the sidebar. Then try the exercises in Section 7.3 of Finite Mathematics and Finite Mathematics and Applied Calculus

Last Updated: June, 2006
Copyright © 1999, 2003, 2006 Stefan Waner

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